Calculating Romance

red shoes

A mathematical projection of my romantic future.


This is based on the assumption that the nicest girls are found in Starbucks, an assumption very consistent with my experience.

  • Population of Tokyo: 12,790,000
  • Number of women in Tokyo: 12,790,000 x .51 = 6,522,900
  • Number of woman in Tokyo age 20-45: 6,522,900 x .33 = 2,152,557
  • Number of woman in Tokyo age 20-45 who don’t smoke: 2,152,557 x .66 = 1,420,687
  • Number of woman in Tokyo age 20-45 who don’t smoke and are unattached: 1,420,687 x .20 = 284,137
  • Number of woman in Tokyo age 20-45 who don’t smoke, are unattached and speak sufficient English: 284,137 x .15 = 42,620
  • Number of woman in Tokyo age 20-45 who don’t smoke, are unattached, speak sufficient English and are intelligent: 42,620 x .05 = 2,131
  • Number of woman in Tokyo age 20-45 who don’t smoke, are unattached, speak sufficient English, are intelligent and are in Starbucks on the weekend: 2,131 x .12 = 256
  • Number of woman in Tokyo age 20-45 who don’t smoke, are unattached, speak sufficient English, are intelligent, are in Starbucks on the weekend and are beautiful: 256 x .1 = 26
  • Number of woman in Tokyo age 20-45 who don’t smoke, are unattached, speak sufficient English, are intelligent, are in Starbucks on the weekend, are beautiful and would give a skinhead a chance: 26 x .05 = 1.3
  • Number of Starbucks in Tokyo: 250
  • Chance that love awaits in a Starbucks I visit in Tokyo on any given weekend: 250 / 1.3 = .0052
  • Maximum number of Starbucks one can practically visit on the weekend: 7
  • Chances that love awaits in one of the Starbucks I visit on the weekend: 7 x .0052 = .0364
  • Average number of weekends before finding love: 1 / .0364 = 27.5
  • Average cost per Starbucks visit: 500 yen
  • Projected amount spent at Starbucks before finding love: 27.5 x (500 x 7) = 96,250 yen or about $1,081

Maybe I should just buy a dog…


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